By Jon Doochin, CEO of Soligent. Originally posted onsoligent.netand reposted with permission. That story can be found这里.
In many ways, 2020 looks like the worst year for a multitude of generations of Americans. That said, 2020, for better or worse, has accelerated us into the future. Here’s what we can realize coming out of 2020 and expect for 2021 for residential and small commercial solar.
3来自2020年的太阳能行业趋势
A Year of Dramatic Acceleration— I think it is fair to say that the vast majority of America never fathomed even a fictional movie where the world wears face masks, large layoffs devastate families and economic shutdowns affect whole states and industries. But with this comes substantially accelerated trends. At the convergence of technological services and internet bandwidth that allows a seamless digital and remote work experience is a growing trend of sourcing the highest caliber talent anywhere in the world at the most competitive cost. Moreover, whereas the adoption of a certain type of software was often a deprioritized luxury for local businesses, they have quickly become a necessity and thus transformed the adoption rate of a technology trend.
Furthermore, consumers need a sense of certainty in their lives, and with fires, hurricanes and blackouts sweeping the country, energy storage gets a boost in its adoption curve. Additionally, white-collar incomes have been on the rise with the stock market reaching record peaks, home buying growing faster than expected and the national savings rate at a 45-year high. Finally, 2021 has seen the rise of the largest cumulative solar and storage valuations, public stocks and a growth of investors seeing green as a fast-growing alternative to oil and gas. These factors, with the substantial possibility of further stimulus money, position 2021 for a strong year.
A Year of Demand and Manufacturing Shocks- 从上半年供过于2020年到平整，但在Q3到Q4的健康库存到Q4交付冲击和推路，2020 SAW供应摇摆。更不用说/再次再次提出双相太阳能电池关税和一般的Covid相关需求在两个方向上的冲击。现在在今年年底随着夏天以来一直在增长的需求，全球会见历史新高的Covid感染率，港口拥挤和持有产品，太阳能ITC再次走下去。
Yet solar installers are well prepared to deal with the ups and downs. Technology advancement in the manufacturing space has continued to move forward at the same rapid pace. Battery prices are dropping, solar panel sizes are increasing while getting cheaper, and inverter roadmaps continue to push forward to their promised output.
给予和教育一年- 2020年的乐趣之一是各界人士的支持。在这个大流行的开始时，我们在艰巨的教育课程与成千上万的安装人员有助于他们驾驭这个新的未来。我们教导了如何从如何接受薪水保护计划资金到平衡危机中的现金流量，以在虚拟世界中销售的提示。我们扩展了信贷额度并支持有需要的人。我们向有需要的孩子们送了假期礼物。我们看到我们并不孤单，每个人都在努力帮助。我不能在我们的能源行业中汲取这么多人。
Sneak Peek: 3 Solar Industry Trends for 2021
地理和产品扩展- 一旦激励和气候推动，太阳能增长最快的状态。今天，从佛罗里达州到德克萨斯州到伊利诺伊州的德克萨斯州的增长。成本已经下降，安装人员变得越来越高效，制造商正在走向全钱包的共享投资组合，帮助他们捕获更多安装人员和消费者支出。这一趋势将在2021年继续加速。
Demand and Supply to Increase- 我们希望看到太阳能需求攀升，并提供储存和ev添加和低利率。也就是说，由于大型太阳能制造商倾斜到其最高能力和随时的需求，因此2021年供过于求的模块潜力。
税收抵免仍在游戏中— With or without the tax credit extension, we expect 2021 to be a big year for solar. If the tax credit sunsets as planned, we’ll have the traditional rush to install solar by the end of the year. If the tax credit is extended, 2021 will still be significant for residential installers as decreasing costs and continued work-from-home plans lead to increased demand.
The truest summary of the last year is that clean energy is here to stay. This is a larger secular trend that is economically beneficial for the United States and GDP-positive for a world in need of GDP. Solar is a money multiplier — if a homeowner pays less for energy, there’s more disposable income to spend, stimulating the economy. Installers are local businesses that pay salaries and create jobs, which again stimulates the local economy with spending and wealth creation. Through public markets and IPOs, solar manufacturers, distributors and others allow the general public to participate in the macro trend of growth in the space. Hindsight is 20/20, but foresight is seeing the inbound secular trend and the benefits from local jobs to GDP.
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